AT&T Q3 2021 earnings: Demand data bodes well for HBO Max international expansion, WarnerMedia-Discovery set to challenge Disney

22 October, 2021

As AT&T reports earnings, Parrot Analytics has analyzed how various WarnerMedia properties fare in the competition for demand share with US and global audiences, with the goal of assessing how the future Warner Bros Discovery conglomerate will stack up to the competition in the near future.

Looking beyond digital original demand - a proven indicator for SVOD subscriber growth and cultural impact - an examination of overall originals demand share and corporate demand share provides a more complete picture. 

This compares how all of HBO’s (HBO and HBO Max) content stacks up against that of Netflix, NBC, BBC etc, and reveals how demand for WarnerMedia’s slate compares to the likes of Disney, ViacomCBS, and others.

In the US, HBO (4.5%) has the fifth largest originals demand share, behind Netflix (7.7%), NBC (6%), CBS (5.7%) and ABC (5.1%). 

Globally, HBO (4.9%) is in second place behind Netflix (9.7%), which bodes well for HBO Max’s international expansion.

The total demand for shows coming from WarnerMedia sits in third place in US corporate demand share at 12.1% - behind Disney (20.1%) and ViacomCBS (13.1%) - but a combined WarnerMedia with Discovery would be in a very close second to Disney at 19.2%. 

This data shows the value of the future Warner Bros Discovery company in challenging Disney’s spot as the dominant media company in the US in the years to come.

Corporate Demand Shares  - United States
(Click here for more details on how we calculate Corporate Demand Share)

  • Collectively, the 6 largest media corporations control almost three quarters of US demand for TV series. 27.4% of audience attention goes to originals from other platforms.
  • The highest share (20.1%) of US audience attention in 2021 Q3 was paid to series ultimately from the Walt Disney Company, with ViacomCBS content holding the second largest share (13.4%).
  • Netflix’s originals may be the most demanded original series in the US by a long shot, but when the rival networks and streaming platforms are consolidated together under their corporate parents then Netflix holds the fifth largest share with 7.7%.

Corporate Demand Share with Warner Bros Discovery - United States

  • Combining WarnerMedia’s 12.1% share with Discovery’s 7.1% share would place the future Warner Bros Discovery company at 19.2%, within striking distance of knocking off Disney as the leading media conglomerate in the US.
  • This data is a good proxy for how valuable the future combined companies will become assuming the merger goes through.

Original Demand Share - United States
(Click here for more details on how we calculate Originals Demand Share)

  • First in the ‘premium’ segment is HBO, whose original series (including HBO Max) captured 4.5% of all expressed demand.
  • Netflix original series have the highest share of US demand in Q3, accounting for 7.7% of all demand expressed in the quarter.
  • Netflix is followed by the major broadcast networks. NBC originals (including Peacock) have a 6.0% share of American audience attention this quarter, CBS originals (including Paramount+) have 5.7% and ABC original series have 5.1%.
  • Buoyed by a number of high-demand originals like Loki, Disney (including Disney+) accounts for 4.0% of demand for original series in the USA.

Originals Demand Share - Global

  • Global is largely the same as the US in top 15, although Netflix has a larger gap between them and second place.
  • HBO performs better, +0.4% share vs US which is good for second place. This bodes well for HBO Max’s international expansion plans, which ramp up when the service hits several large European markets next week.

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