In the first half of 2024, streaming volume cooled while audience demand kept fragmenting. New originals growth dipped to ~3.9% QoQ in Q2—yet the platforms winning aren’t spraying the slate; they’re extracting more value from library, packaging smarter bundles, and aligning genres to precise demos and markets. Our Global TV Demand Report unpacks how Netflix turns older shows into fresh hits, why Disney+ is rebalancing franchise weight, how Peacock’s “fresh bias” over-performs, and where bundles actually add incremental value. We also map horror-movie timing (hello, September), generational genre skews, and ten market spotlights from the Nordics to Korea. Here’s the brief—and what to do next.
Executive summary:
- Supply slows, discipline rises: Q2’24 new originals grew ~3.9% QoQ; total output remains ~4× early-2020.
- Netflix’s library edge: ~60% of catalog demand came from titles last releasing in 2022 or earlier; share of premieres ticked up since late-2023.
- Peacock’s freshness premium: 2024 premieres drove ~36% of demand vs ~13% of catalog—clear over-performance.
- Franchise re-balance at Disney+: Marvel’s share fell from ~19% (2022) to ~12% (H1’24); Star Wars steadier.
- Bundles ≈ retention tools: Disney+-Hulu is priced to acquire; Disney+-Hulu-Max less aggressive—aimed at lowering churn.
- Actionable edges: Gen Z → animation/comedy; Millennials → horror; Nordics → adventure; K-dramas remain the export engine.
The state of global streaming supply
Output is no longer racing upward. After a post-strike wobble, Q2’24 premiered originals grew ~3.9% QoQ—the lowest in the window—signaling a shift from volume to value.
Two winning engines: library flywheel vs. freshness machine
In a slower-supply world, platforms are winning in two opposite, but equally effective, ways: Netflix’s library flywheel turns older titles into new demand, while Peacock’s freshness machine over-indexes on shows releasing now:
- Library flywheel (Netflix): ~60% of H1’24 catalog demand came from titles last releasing in 2022 or earlier—with share of premieres ticking up since late-2023 and industry-leading demand-per-dollar supporting lowest churn. Case in point: Suits went from modest to phenomenon once exposed to Netflix’s reach.
- Freshness machine (Peacock): 2024-premiering series generated ~36% of platform demand despite being only ~13% of catalog—clear over-performance driven by topical, quick-turn formats (e.g., SNL) and a steady NBC pipeline.
Disney+: recalibrating the franchise mix
Franchise fatigue is measurable for Marvel (share ~19%→~12% since 2022), while Star Wars holds steadier. The play now: broaden the tent while using tentpoles to reignite rewatch.
Peacock: the power of “what’s new now”
On Peacock, freshness over-indexes: 2024 premieres are ~13% of catalog but ~36% of demand—especially for topical, quick-turn formats like SNL.
Bundles and the new “value map”
The bundles that work best minimize catalog overlap and maximize incremental demand per dollar, hence why Disney+-Hulu is priced aggressively to pull in fence-sitters, while the Disney+-Hulu-Max “super bundle” is less aggressive and reads as a churn-reduction play.
When you plot services on a demand-vs-price map, Netflix still delivers the strongest value, but bundles can close the gap if they stitch together distinct libraries rather than duplicative ones. Net takeaway: price bundles for retention unless your overlap is near-zero and you can justify an acquisition subsidy.
Movies: Timing the horror slate (and why September wins)
Horror floods into October, but that crowding depresses average first-30-day demand (≈5× an average movie). Off-season releases perform better: September consistently delivers the sweet spot (≈7.4×), catching spooky momentum without the Halloween pile-up, while December is the trough as audiences pivot to holiday fare. If you must be in Q4, lean late-September/early-October; otherwise, program summer-to-September and own the conversation.
Audience DNA: which genres break through by generation
Genre hits are cohort-specific: Gen Z over-indexes to comedy (>50%) and animation (>40%); Zennials show a distinct romance tilt (~30%); Millennials are the strongest horror cohort (~20%, >2× any other gen); and Gen X+ displays relative affinity for westerns (~3.2%) while being the least animation-oriented (~1.5%). Translate that into execution—creative, trailers, thumbnails, and talent partnerships should shift by cohort (creator-led humor for Gen Z, tension-forward assets for Millennials, character-first romance for Zennials, and prestige/classic positioning for Gen X+).
Ten-market spotlight: where tastes diverge
Nordics (regional): Adventure up; music down.
Across the Nordics, audiences lean into adventure—both scripted (think epic fantasy/sci-fi) and unscripted survival/expedition formats—while music competitions and performance shows under-index. It’s a region where scale, spectacle, and outdoorsy challenge travel better than studio-bound talent contests.
Norway: Crime procedural & thriller lead.
Norway is the most “Nordic noir” of the bunch: crime procedurals and tense thrillers sit atop the genre mix. Dark stakes, methodical investigations, and icy atmospherics outperform other formats, making Norway fertile ground for detective franchises and prestige limited thrillers.
Sweden: Paranormal/spy/science sub-genre tilt.
Sweden doesn’t spike on broad genres, but sub-genres reveal the signal: paranormal mysteries, espionage stories, and science/knowledge programming over-index. Programmers should frame campaigns around curiosity and conspiracy rather than broad comedy or romance beats.
Finland: Anime standout; JP channels in top-15.
Finland is the surprise anime superfan in this set. Japanese origin channels (Tokyo MX, TV Tokyo, AT-X) crack the top-15 by originals, indicating strong appetite for simulcasts and season-stacked anime libraries. Secure premium anime windows and treat them like tentpoles.
Denmark: Most sitcom-loving; The Bear over-indexed.
Denmark posts average comedy share overall but is the most sitcom-friendly market—episodic, character-centric humor lands. The Bear punched above its weight here, likely boosted by Copenhagen-set episodes, showing how even brief local cues can unlock outsize demand.
Korea: Drama ≈60% domestic; K-dramas dominate exports.
At home, roughly 60% of demand concentrates in drama; abroad, K-dramas are the clear export engine. The playbook is consistent: premium melodrama, romance, and crime sagas anchor domestic engagement while fueling international licensing and subtitled/dubbed growth.
Ecuador: Queen of Tears #39 for the quarter.
K-drama momentum reached Ecuador, where Queen of Tears ranked #39 for the quarter—an unusually high placement for a Korean title in LATAM. Local marketing that spotlights romance and high production values should extend this halo.
Indonesia: High School Return of a Gangster top-100.
Indonesia joined Korea as one of the only markets where High School Return of a Gangster cracked the top-100, signaling appetite for youthful, high-concept dramas with crime/action hooks. Fast dubs and mobile-forward promotion will amplify reach.
Philippines (adaptations): What’s Wrong With Secretary Kim (PH) #47; Running Man PH top-100.
Adaptations win in the Philippines: local remakes of Korean hits (Secretary Kim PH at #47; Running Man PH top-100) outperform many imports. Format localization plus celebrity casting remains a high-ROI route to scale.
New Zealand: BBC ≈6.7% share; ITV/Ch4 in top-15; Bridgerton/Baby Reindeer/The Gentlemen lead.
New Zealand over-indexes to UK originals: BBC claims ~6.7% of total series demand, with ITV and Channel 4 also in the top-15 platforms. British Netflix hits—Bridgerton, Baby Reindeer, The Gentlemen—headlined the quarter, underscoring sustained Kiwi affinity for UK tone, talent, and storytelling.
Documentary demand: US vs global vs UK.
Docs surged through 2019–2021, cooled in 2022, then split: the US has resumed growth in documentary share, the global aggregate continues to taper, and the UK is now the most doc-loving market of the three—consistently outpacing the US. Translation for planners: US/UK slates can still support premium, issue-led and talent-fronted docs (true-crime, sports, music, political), while global commissioning should be more selective, leaning into formats with clear cross-border hooks (eventized true-crime, breathtaking access, personality-driven journeys) and windowing strategies tailored to each market’s appetite.
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