Image: Breaking Bad, AMC
The Lindy Effect is a principle that states the longer non-perishable entities, like technologies or ideas, have existed, the more likely they are to continue existing. When applied to cultural phenomena such as TV shows, this suggests that if a show has maintained popularity for 10 or 20 years, it's likely to remain relevant for another 10 or 20 years.
Such enduring shows, often referred to as "legacy content," typically have a significant cultural impact both in the US and internationally. Examples include AMC’s Breaking Bad and HBO’s The Sopranos — two highly acclaimed TV dramas that are the most in-demand TV shows that ended more than 10 years ago. Breaking Bad is the cornerstone of a long and lucrative partnership between Netflix and series producer Sony. These shows are followed by the Japanese anime Naruto, renowned as one of the most popular animes ever.
Interestingly, this trend also includes certain comedy and comedy-drama series. Sitcoms like Seinfeld, Friends, and the medical dramedy House maintain high demand levels, thanks to their rewatchable qualities and large fan bases. These shows are responsible for streaming platforms spending considerable money on licensing. Netflix acquired the worldwide streaming rights for Seinfeld for upwards of $500M, while WBTV shelled out $425M for the US streaming rights to Friends.
In the context of streaming platforms, these legacy shows represent a significant portion of viewer demand. For instance, Paramount+ sees over one-fifth of its TV catalog demand coming from shows that ended more than 10 years ago, largely due to the popularity of the Star Trek franchise. The platform has five TV-released Star Trek shows in its catalog, including the original series of the franchise, which is one of the most popular legacy titles in the US. On the other hand, Apple TV+ is an exception to this trend.
Streaming services benefit greatly from including these shows in their catalogs. They not only help in retaining subscribers but also provide viewers with familiar content to enjoy between new releases. Platforms with a substantial amount of licensed content, like Amazon Prime Video and Hulu, are particularly keen on acquiring such legacy shows, which can develop multi-generational fandoms.
For example, Prime Video hosts three of the top ten most in-demand legacy shows: Naruto, House, and Teen Titans, along with other classics like Stargate SG-1 and Mr. Bean. Hulu offers Lost and Buffy the Vampire Slayer.
Peacock, another platform with a high demand share for legacy shows, capitalizes on NBC’s extensive legacy library, featuring long-running series like Columbo and the 1989 sci-fi series Quantum Leap.
Legacy content plays a crucial role in the long-term strategies of streaming platforms by sustaining audience engagement. However, it is important to note that older legacy content doesn't guarantee that a show will always have a higher demand than the newer hit show being released in that quarter. Instead, the consistency of its elevated demand levels over time is a considerable achievement and pays off in the long run.
