Insights

The Shifting Math of the Streaming Wars

28 March, 2023

The television industry reached a major turning point in 2022. While the headlines often focus on subscriber counts, the real story is found in audience demand, the actual attention people pay to content across all platforms. Data from the 2022 Global TV Demand Report shows that the era of a single dominant player has ended, replaced by a much more crowded and competitive landscape.

The End of the Netflix Monopoly

For years, Netflix enjoyed a massive first-mover advantage that made it the default choice for streaming. That advantage is effectively gone. In 2021, the global demand share for Netflix’s original series dropped below 50 percent for the first time. By the end of 2022, that share slid further to a new low of 41.5 percent.

the chart shows share of demand for original programming for streaming services (Netflix, Apple TV+, Disney+, Prime Video, HBO Max, Paramount+, Hulu)

This does not mean Netflix is failing, but rather that the rest of the industry has finally caught up. We are seeing a massive "squeeze" from every direction.

  • Disney+ has been the most aggressive climber, breaking into double digits for the first time in the fourth quarter of 2022 with a 10.2 percent demand share.
  • Paramount+ saw significant growth, fueled by the expansion of its Yellowstone universe and original hits like Halo.
  • The "Other" category, which includes niche platforms for anime or horror and local market services, is also growing, taking small bites out of the major players every quarter.

Volume vs. Blockbusters: Two Paths to the Top

the chart shows the most in demand premieres of 2022

The data reveals two very different philosophies for how to stay relevant in this new environment.

Netflix uses a volume-based strategy. They put out a massive number of shows across every imaginable genre, betting that if they throw enough at the wall, they are bound to have massive hits. In 2022, this worked with Stranger Things, which was the most in-demand show globally for the year. By splitting the release into two parts, Netflix was able to hold audience attention across the entire middle of the year, preventing a quick burn of interest.

Disney+ takes the opposite approach. Their strategy is almost entirely built on blockbusters and established franchises. Instead of hundreds of shows, they focus on a few high-demand series from the Marvel and Star Wars universes. This focus is incredibly efficient. While Netflix puts out far more content, Disney+ had three of the top ten most in-demand new premieres of 2022: Moon Knight (87.6x average demand), Obi-Wan Kenobi (75.6x), and She-Hulk: Attorney at Law (71.6x).

The Rise of Anime and Game Adaptations

One of the most interesting sub-trends in 2022 was the success of anime and video game adaptations. Cyberpunk: Edgerunners (60.8x demand) and Chainsaw Man (53.9x demand) both broke into the top ten global premieres. This highlights a growing intersection of global fandoms that streamers are now racing to capture.

The Power of the Catalog: Why Originals Aren't Everything

It is a common mistake to think that streaming is only about new, original shows. In reality, streaming originals make up only about 25.1 percent of the total demand globally. The other 74.9 percent of what people actually watch consists of licensed content and older series originally made for linear television.

When you look at the total catalog of shows available in the U.S., the rankings change completely. Hulu led the market in 2022 with a 19.5 percent share of catalog demand, actually beating out Netflix at 18.0 percent. Hulu’s strength comes from its deep library of series, while platforms like HBO Max dominate the movie demand space.

the chart shows how the Disney+/Hulu bundle creates a 4 quadrant service

This brings us to the importance of bundling. No single platform currently satisfies every audience segment. For example:

  • Disney+ originals heavily target younger, male audiences.
  • Hulu has a much broader spread, with high-demand shows in every demographic quadrant, from The Kardashians (younger female) to The Orville (older male) and The Handmaid's Tale (older female).

By bundling Disney+ and Hulu together, Disney creates a "four-quadrant" service that has something for everyone, making it much harder for a subscriber to cancel.

The Talent Factor: The Jenna Ortega Effect

A show's success is now inextricably linked to the demand for its stars. 2022 provided a perfect case study with Wednesday. While Netflix usually sees a quick spike and drop in demand for its "all at once" releases, Wednesday actually grew its audience over its first three weeks.

This growth was mirrored by its lead, Jenna Ortega. By December 4th, she was the most in-demand actor in the world. What is truly impressive is that as her visibility grew, her sentiment score remained high. Usually, when an actor moves beyond their core fanbase, they face more criticism, but Ortega managed to increase her overall positive sentiment while expanding her audience.

The Math of Pricing: Is Your Streaming Subscription Worth It?

As platforms raise prices, they have to justify that cost with high-demand content. There is a very clear relationship between the total demand of a platform’s catalog and what it can reasonably charge its users.

what streaming platforms are competitively priced?

In late 2022 and early 2023, some services looked overpriced. Showtime, as a standalone service, offered less demand relative to its price than competitors like Starz. This led to Showtime being discontinued as a standalone service and folded into Paramount+. The new combined price of $11.99 for the Paramount+ and Showtime bundle is actually quite aggressive, sitting below the "fair market" price of $13.00 based on its demand.

On the other hand, HBO Max looked slightly overpriced after its increase to $15.99, especially while it was removing some titles from its library.

Regional Nuances: A Look at India

To understand the global market, you have to look at specific regions. In India, the demand for drama is much higher than the global average, making up 47.0 percent of all series demand. Crime dramas and thrillers are the biggest drivers there.

Interestingly, while Western hits like Stranger Things do well in India, there is a very tight race with local originals. The Indian series Naagin was not only a top show domestically but also the most in-demand Asian series globally in 2022.

Conclusion: The New Normal

The 2022 data shows that the "Streaming Wars" have entered a phase of maturity. We are no longer seeing a race for subscribers at any cost, but a race for efficiency and attention.

Winning now requires a mix of three things:

  • Blockbuster Franchises: To drive new sign-ups and global headlines.
  • Deep Libraries: To prevent "churn" and keep people watching between big releases.
  • Smart Bundling: To ensure the service appeals to every member of a household, regardless of age or gender.

Streaming platforms that can balance these three needs while maintaining a competitive price point will be the ones that survive the continued squeeze on audience attention.

Next steps:

  • If you are interested in seeing these trends discussed in more detail, you can watch the webinar for an interactive walkthrough of the report.
  • Discover how Parrot Analytics’ DEMAND360 quantifies global audience demand using the world’s largest audience behavior datasets.
  • Interested in learning how to monetize audiences in today's attention economy? Reach out to our team.



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