Image: Silo, Apple TV+
A wave of shows based on books have been winning over audiences recently. Percy Jackson and the Olympians was a huge success for Disney+. Shogun is currently dominating audience attention as it releases episodes weekly. On the longer term horizon some of the most popular book series of all time are due to be adapted for the small screen. Warner Bros. Discovery is planning a "Harry Potter" series to be released in 2026. It was recently announced that a new animated series based on the “Twilight” franchise is in the works at Lionsgate. It is no surprise why decision-makers are eager to invest in book adaptations specifically, and more generally any adaptation of existing IP. These shows are seen as tested and have existing fan bases that will help to de-risk an adaptation relative to an entirely original new series.
A look at the past three years of demand confirms that book adaptations have significantly higher demand on average compared to shows not based on a book. The advantage of shows based on a book relative to shows not based on a book hit a new high in 2023 when the average series adapted from a book had 2.12x demand compared to the average show not based on a book which had 1.19x demand.
But the real value of adapting existing literary IP is helping a show’s first season to be a success and this is in some ways the most critical time to de-risk a production, when a show is untested. When we specifically look at season 1 releases, the demand premium for being based on a book is much more pronounced. In 2022 and 2023, the average new series based on a book had around three times more demand than the average new series not based on a book. The high correlation between a show’s demand and its ability to attract and retain subscribers for streaming platforms means that these book adaptations are more likely to deliver value for streamers. We also know that the higher the demand for a show’s first season, the better its odds of being renewed, meaning that fans are less likely to be left in the lurch with an abruptly cancelled show when it is based on a book.
The most in-demand new series based on books to premiere in 2023 span a range of genres indicating that it is not just a particular genre of literary adaptations driving higher demand for shows based on books. From supernatural shows (Wolf Pack, Mayfair Witches) to romance (Queen Charlotte) to action (Justified: City Primeval, The Night Agent), last year there were highly in-demand book adaptations to satisfy audiences of all types.
The most in-demand new show based on a book to premiere in 2023 was the dystopian sci-fi drama Silo from Apple TV+, which had 20.95 times the average series demand for the year. In fact, two of the three most in-demand new shows based on a book are Apple TV+ originals. If we consider the top twenty most in-demand new shows in 2023 based on a book , five of these are Apple TV+ originals, the highest number for any platform in the top twenty and all the more impressive given the relatively smaller catalog size of Apple TV+. This may be one explanation for the platform’s particularly strong track record when it comes to the hit rate of its series - it seems to be investing in book adaptations which is a solid way to de-risk production and help increase the probability of a successful premiere.
