Image: Conclave, Focus Features
Donald Rumsfeld popularized the concept of known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns (though ‘popularized’ might be the wrong term for a convoluted quote from a Secretary of Defense about the Iraq War). “Conclave” provides an illustrative example of how to view content performance through this risk assessment framework.
A movie’s premiere is something of a “known known” that can be choreographed months in advance to maximize its odds of success. Awards season is a “known unknown” for a movie like “Conclave.” The particular nominations, wins, and whether a film will be a breakout hit of the awards circuit can’t be known in advance, but can be planned for to some degree. The Pope’s death definitely falls into the “unknown unknown” category.
The trajectory of “Conclave” since its premiere is illustrative of how factors in a platform’s control, as well as completely unforeseeable events, can impact the performance of content. The movie previously reached its peak demand as the 17th most in-demand movie globally, the day after the Oscars, having risen in demand throughout awards season. This is a pattern typical of critically acclaimed awards contenders that might not otherwise reach the same level of widespread awareness without the buzz of awards season. After this peak, demand for the movie gradually subsided and it eventually fell out of the 100 most in-demand films globally.
Things took a dramatic turn following the death of Pope Francis on Easter Monday. Global demand for “Conclave” shot up, and the movie peaked as the third most in-demand movie globally on April 23rd. It remained in the Top 10 movies globally for nine days following the death of the Pope as audiences sought it out to make sense of real-world events.
Universal’s windowing deal sees its live-action movies head first to Peacock for four months and then move to stream on Prime Video exclusively. In a plot twist, because of this arrangement, “Conclave” left Peacock and became available to stream on Amazon Prime Video a day after the Pope’s death. Amazon now looks set to benefit most from the newly revived interest in the movie.
This serves as a cautionary tale about the unanticipated risks of licensing away content to competitors. Even though it is a fair assumption that the first four months on streaming are likely to be when a title has the most potential to engage users (especially when they coincide with awards season), this case shows even the best-laid plans are not immune to the risks of external events. The “unknown unknowns” can rewrite the revenue split overnight.
